Another challenge to arms race stability posed by Starlink comes from its dual-use nature. In an arms race, the motivation to compete for advantage and the fear that withdrawing from competition will benefit the opponent are interdependent. The U.S. motivation to militarize Starlink for strategic advantage, intertwined with other spacefaring nations’ fear of lagging, will accelerate the militarization of global civilian satellite constellation projects, collectively fostering a spiral escalation in related fields of arms races.67 For a long time, countries like China have adhered to the stance of “non-militarization of outer space,” firmly opposing the weaponization of space and space arms races. In 2022, China announced that its space station would be open to all United Nations member states, creating a “space home” for all humanity, receiving high praise from the international community.68 The United States, seeking absolute military advantage in space, has taken the militarization of Starlink as an important measure for implementing space deterrence and shaping the space security environment. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the United States has openly used Starlink in military operations, drawing strong dissatisfaction from Russia. Russian officials noted: “We should never trust the West in the aerospace field. Starlink was initially declared purely civilian, but during Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, Elon Musk appeared with his Starlink.”69 The militarization of Starlink may once again initiate the “action-reaction” cycle of space arms races, forcing other capable nations to follow suit out of fear of falling behind, exacerbating instability in outer space.
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California lobbying: CalAccess (cal-access.sos.ca.gov), Bloomberg Government